Activision-Blizzard posts results

Yesterday we finally got to peek into the books of the merged Activision-Blizzard, and from what I can tell it looks pretty good, especially given the free-fall the market has experienced.  In fact, given today’s near 500 point drop in the Dow, to see a comany, any company, beat Wall Street estimates and pick up 10% in the value of its stock is like a beacon of hope.  It certainly gives credence to the argument that gaming companies do well during recessions since gaming gives you the most entertainment bang for your buck.

 

I read the trascript from the Activision-Blizzard earnings call and it’s clear that its management is more optimistic about their prospects in the coming months than Electronic Arts, who is battening down the hatches by lowering forecasts and laying people off.  ATVI, on the other hand, affirmed their outlook for the year and even increased their estimate of cost savings to be realized from the merger by $50 million. 

 

They have big releases coming up: Call of Duty (World at War) and WoW’s Wrath of the Lich King, and the just-released Guitar Hero: World Tour attracted 25,000 user-generated songs which can be downloaded by others and could lead to a subscription model for Guitar Hero.  (Take that, youtube!)

 

So ATVI looks to be well positioned for the holidays.  Obviously the big question mark is whether the consumer will come through.  Personally, I think these games are a fairly cheap way to keep the cheer in the holiday season for kids.  I could easily see hardware sales being way off, especially big ticket items like laptops, and the “must have” smartphones.  Those items might have been the Big Kahuna under the Christmas tree before the economy tanked, but forget about it now.  However, parents can still afford to throw a few games at junior to at least avoid feeling like the grinch. 

 

And luckily for the software companies, the latest generation of consoles came out when everyone was only to happy to run up more debt on the ol’ credit card.  (Ah, how I miss those days already.)  That means that most people don’t have to buy the console this Chistmas, just the new game releases.  If the new consoles were just coming out this year, I’d be writing a decidedly different post.  But as it stands, your average high school/college student only needs to return a few garbage bags of beer cans in order to get enough cash to head down to GameStop for Call of Duty.

 

So cheer up everyone.  Activision-Blizzard has arrived to save Christmas!  Sure, they can’t include the horrific October we just had in their numbers, but then again they won’t have to report on October numbers until after the holidays are over.  Until then, what better way to escape reality than to settle in with a new game release?

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As predicted – market bounce falls flat

As I said two days ago, the one-day, record setting bounce in the stock market was not to be trusted.  Two days later, it has given back all but 127 points after posting the second largest point loss ever today.  We’re still seeing emotion-driven trading, and there’s no sign of that letting up just yet.  But the structures have been put in place around the world to get the gears turning again.  Have patience, and like I said here, focus all of that nervous energy on taking a hard look at your personal budget and looking for cuts.

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It’s the stupid economy

Note that the title of this post is not “It’s the economy, stupid” but rather “it’s the stupid economy” because our economy is now officially for the stupid.  I came to this conclusion while watching an analyst’s comments on Apple this morning.  He said that Apple represents everything that is right with America.  It has the best growth prospects, one of the best balance sheets, and is overall likely the best company we have.  He then proceeded to say he bought it at 90 a few days ago and was selling today.  These are the people running and ruining our economy.

 

Here we have a guy that the good people down at network X have deemed to be an ‘expert’ on the economy and market.  According to them, his words carry weight.  So in one breath he’s saying that Apple is a company worth owning for the long haul because it’s one of the best U.S. companies, if not the best, and in the next breath he casually mentions he’s day trading its stock.  And the hosts say nothing about this hypocrisy. 

 

This attitude is now so common-place that we think nothing of it.  We no longer invest in companies, we trade on momentum.  Instant gratification and the quickest possible buck.  That’s what we’re all about.  And that’s what our stupid market and stupid economy have come to.  It’s the largest legalized gambling operation in history.  An economy of the stupid, for the stupid, by the stupid.

 

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Is the market bounce for real?

Talk about a roller coaster ride. The market had its single largest point gain yesterday. It was also the 5th largest gain on a percentage basis. Personally, I don’t trust it.

Do you know when the largest percentage gain was? 1933.  Yep, smack dab in the middle of the great depression. In fact, eight of the top 10 all time best days occurred during the depression. Why?

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Weathering the financial storm we’re in

There are very simple steps you can take to get through this crisis. It’s not hard, and it has been done in the past successfully. The key is taking them immediately. Do it today. Here’s what they are.

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The bailout plan

So they finally passed a bailout package and one of the powers it grants the administration is the power to take an equity stake in the banks being bailed out.  So basically the taxpayers would become stockholders of the banks instead of owners of the banks’ failed debt.  As stockholders, the taxpayers would own both the bad debt but also part of the productive areas of the banks’ business.  I know some conservatives who oppose that idea because it simply smells too much like socialism…the government owning companies.  I say just the opposite is true.

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